France’s green energy plans to expand renewable energy and fuel by moving away from fossil fuels are under threat from Marine Le Pen’s far right nationalist party، which might win the most seats in legislative elections within weeks and scrap key environment policies as le Pen’s National Rally has pledged to roll back major planks of the European Union’s historic Green Deal and its victory could threaten utilities، renewables developers، turbine makers and car-battery manufacturers، putting Paris on a collision course over its green obligations to EU partners.

France’s green energy plans are at risk as the three major political groups contesting the French legislative election have made campaign promises that would each cost more than €10 billion ($10.7 billion) per year for the spending-power portions alone، even as Paris is already struggling to reduce its budget deficit.

France’s green energy plans are at risk as far right party seeks to halt development of renewables

France’s green energy plans are at risk as far right party seeks to halt development of wind، solar power، while the analysis from think tank Institut Montaigne didn’t provide estimates for the entirety of the pledges by the parties and on purchasing power، it put the highest cost on the promises made by the leftist New Popular Front group، with a central estimate of an added cost of €29 billion per year.

Clean-power producers bracing for National Rally electoral win

France’s green energy plans are confronting anger among some voters that climate policies are hitting their wallets and freedom of choice، and they want to stop punitive green policies، according to  Jean-Philippe Tanguy، who is in charge of the National Rally’s economic and energy platform who said in an interview: "We don’t want to abandon the plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2050، we want to achieve it with other means."

France’s green energy plans would be cancelled if the National Rally forms the next government

France’s green energy plans would be cancelled if the National Rally forms the next government، as it  would halt the development of wind power، abandon a ban on the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars slated for 2035، loosen housing-renovation requirements، and curb plans to exclude the most polluting vehicles from large cities، instead it would focus on building new nuclear reactors and supporting the development of clean fuels such as hydrogen. 

This policy program would be a seismic shift in France’s green energy plans and the energy priorities of the EU’s second-biggest economy as  President Emmanuel Macron، whose Renaissance party is currently in a distant third place in recent polls، had laid an ambitious road map for everything from wind، solar and nuclear power، to electric cars، building renovations and green gases but now all of that is up in the air. 

France’s green energy plans will be in great danger

Nicolas Rochon، the chief executive officer of fund manager RGreen Invest، warned that all businesses that are subsidized and have an impact on populations، like wind، will be in great danger and this will put a brake on France’s green energy plans and the pace of new projects.

Investors، already spooked by the broader economic impact of a possible National Rally victory، have been selling off French energy stocks and power and gas utility Engie SA and renewable developer Voltalia SA have dropped more than most other shares traded in Paris in recent weeks so that France’s green energy plans are in danger of stalling.

World Populist politicians and France’s green energy plans to roll back low carbon policies

Populist politicians around the world، from Donald Trump in the U.S. to Nigel Farage in the UK، and France’s green energy plans have been vowing to roll back low-carbon policies and downplaying climate change ahead of key elections، however، the strategy appears to be working، with green political parties suffering big losses in European elections earlier this month. 

In France، Le Pen’s party has surfed to greater popularity on the back of voters’ angst about the surge in gas and power bills resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as the National Rally has pledged to cut the value-added tax on gasoline، natural gas، heating fuel and electricity putting France’s green energy plans at risk، while the cost of this، which it estimates at €14 billion ($15 billion)، would be partly funded by a temporary tax on windfall profits of power companies and lower subsidies for renewables. 

These policies will worsen France’s budget deficit

Macron’s Finance Minister، Bruno Le Maire، has warned that these policies will worsen France’s budget deficit، already one of the biggest in the European Union،  and raise borrowing costs for businesses and households alike as well as  puts the cost of the National Rally’s proposed VAT cut at closer to €17 billion. 

The greatest green policy change resulting from a win for the National Rally would be in wind، which accounts for about 10% of France’s power production and Macron plans، in the France’s green energy plans، to grant financial support for a major expansion، adding about 1.5 gigawatts of onshore wind projects annually and to tender for almost 16 gigawatts of offshore turbines by the end of 2026. 

France doesn’t need more wind power

Philippe Tanguy، dubbed as the National Rally’s "Mr. Economy،" stated that France doesn’t need more wind power and its  electricity mix is already almost entirely carbon-free، with about 90% coming from nuclear، hydro، wind and solar in addition، he would even take down a limited number of turbines that are "ugly" in iconic tourist areas. 

Clean-power developments have thrived under far-right governments in Italy، Hungary and Poland، still، green energy is pausing any investments that are heavily exposed to France for three months، while the National Rally would need to win at least 289 seats at the end of the two-round election on June 30 and July 7 to get a majority in the National Assembly، a prerequisite set by party president Jordan Bardella for him to become prime minister as the party held 88 seats in the prior parliament. 

National Rally leading with 32.7%، Emmanuel Macron in 3rd place

Given the structure of French elections، predicting final seat counts before voting starts is difficult as for the first round، polls showed the National Rally leading with 32.7% of voting intentions، a leftist alliance، called the New Popular Front، was second on 26.3% while Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party and its allies were in third place.

Le Pen’s party would also end support for new solar farm projects that use Chinese panels، while backing the construction of photovoltaic equipment in France، and such a move could significantly slow developments because Europe hardly manufactures solar panels any more، and projects to build two factories in France have yet to get off the ground.

National Rally would support the construction of 20 reactors by 2045

On nuclear power، National Rally would support the construction of 20 reactors by 2045، going further than the six to 14 new atomic plants Macron wants state-owned Electricite de France SA to build while the cost of this would be partly offset by savings on power-network investments thanks to the slowdown in new grid connections for renewables، Tanguy added.

Some investors، such as Thierry Deau، the CEO of Meridiam SAS، which has more than $22 billion invested in infrastructure assets worldwide، are optimistic that the France’s green energy plans and the expansion of clean energy will continue in France abd he doesn’t believe in a slowdown of investments in the energy transition that his fund just decided to reinvest in Allego NV، a company that builds car-charging networks in France and other European countries as he is not worried for the European Green Deal.